The US session (New York open · the afternoon drive) · updated 2026-09-22 12:00 UTC.
Good morning. The dollar bid that set up shop Friday is still working its shift — EUR/USD (1.14691) and GBP/USD (1.33731) both sit low in their ranges with no tested ceiling overhead, USD/JPY (157.482) leans bullish, and gold (4342.88) is squeezed between 4333.73 and 4359.91 after a bearish H4 engulfing. Crypto's the outlier: Bitcoin (RSI 63) and Ethereum (RSI 56) are both pushing up across all three timeframes, with XRP up almost 2% over the last eight hours.
The US window brings a light data plate and a heavy microphone: ADP weekly employment change, consumer confidence and the Richmond manufacturing index, plus President Trump speaking and a full bench of Fed voices — Williams, Jefferson and Barkin. Nagel also speaks on the euro side. Japan remains out for the bank holiday, so yen liquidity stays thin — worth remembering if USD/JPY makes a run at anything.
On the barometer, the stretched pairs are still stretched. EUR/USD leans neutral (H4 RSI 39.4, floor 1.14623 just below, resistance 11.9 ATR away), GBP/USD neutral (H4 RSI 40.9, resistance 15.8 ATR away), and USD/JPY leaning bullish (H4 RSI 66.2). Watch whether the dollar bid extends or those pairs finally breathe — and whether the Fed speakers give it a reason either way.
22 Sep 12:15 UTCUSD Low
22 Sep 13:55 UTCUSD Medium
22 Sep 14:00 UTCEUR Low
22 Sep 14:00 UTCUSD Low
22 Sep 14:05 UTCUSD Low
22 Sep 14:20 UTCUSD Low
22 Sep 17:00 UTCUSD Low
22 Sep 19:30 UTCEUR Low
22 Sep 20:30 UTCUSD Low