The Fed Blinked, the Clarity Act Died, and Bitcoin Still Won't Pick a Side

The Week That Was

Pour the coffee — this was one of those weeks where the headlines did the heavy lifting and the charts just shrugged. The big story was the U.S. central bank, which The Motley Fool called "massive news for stock market investors," and the Fed decision that FOREX.com flagged as the catalyst everyone was waiting on for gold. Over in Washington, the crypto world got a double dose of drama: the CLARITY Act was rejected (TradingKey asked the honest question — "Is there still hope?"), while the CFTC's crypto asset rules moved into White House review and a separate CFTC market-regulation proposal sent XRP jumping 6%, per MarketForces Africa. The Guardian, meanwhile, asked the question that sells newsletters: "Are global stock markets heading for a crash?" We'll take that with a grain of salt and a look at the charts.

What The Charts Are Saying

Here's our own higher-timeframe read, and it's a mixed bag — which is itself the story.

EUR/USD is our clearest bearish read (29/100). D1 is mixed, but H4 and H1 are both down, H4 RSI at 40.1. There's no tested ceiling above and the floor sits far below — price is stretched. GBP/USD leans the same way (31/100): H4 and H1 down, H4 RSI 43.4, resistance way up at 1.34947 and no tested ceiling above. The dollar side of the ledger is firm.

USD/JPY is the mirror image — bullish leaning (61/100), with H4 and H1 both up and H4 RSI at 62.0. Support at 156.67 was former resistance, resistance at 157.78 was former support, and the chart is evenly balanced with similar room both ways.

Gold is genuinely neutral (48/100) — D1 down, H4 up, H1 mixed. But here's the interesting bit: price is squeezed between 4366.33 support and 4384.24 resistance, two very close levels. A breakout is on the table, direction unknown. FOREX.com noted gold is "attempting to stabilize near a pivotal technical zone" with the Fed as the catalyst.

Oil is also neutral (51/100), but sitting high in its range — 0.7 ATR below the 95.81 ceiling and 5.3 ATR above the 90.83 floor. One headline worth filing away: "a sudden end to the Iran war would strike a blow against oil prices and energy stocks — yet company insiders are buying."

Crypto Corner

Crypto never sleeps, and this weekend it's the only game in town. Bitcoin is neutral on our read (51/100) — D1 down, H4 up, H1 down, H4 RSI 61.2 but H1 RSI 39.4. Price sits 1.1 ATR above the 79,944.5 floor with 3.2 ATR of room up to 81,302.7 resistance — low in the range. Yahoo Finance reported BTC opened Friday at $76,350.68, up 0.3%, as investors "moved past CLARITY's failure," and TradingKey noted Bitcoin pushed past $79K as markets anticipated the Fed. Ethereum is neutral too (47/100), D1 down, H4 up, H1 mixed, with similar room above (2.3 ATR to 2613.8) and below (4.3 ATR to 2507.5). The street's watching the $2,672 weekly-close level — 24/7 Wall St. said ETH was trading $42 below it, and CryptoTicker flagged a short squeeze as ETH cleared $2,600. Meanwhile the institutional plumbing keeps building: Coinbase and Stablecore opened digital asset rails to 3,000+ banks, and Bastion won conditional OCC approval for a national trust bank charter.

What The Street Is Watching

BlackRock's weekly commentary is out, FOREX.com is watching whether the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 can keep shrugging off a hawkish Fed with 10-year notes near 5%, and CNBC flagged dollar and bond markets "on edge." On the calendar, all eyes are on the SNB policy rate Thursday and Australia's employment data the same morning.

The Week Ahead

Monday opens with Lagarde and BOC's Macklem speaking. Tuesday brings RBA Governor Bullock (high impact) and Lagarde again. Wednesday is PMI day — French, German, and UK flash manufacturing and services. Thursday is the big one: Australian employment change and unemployment rate, plus the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment and policy rate.

What To Watch

- SNB Thursday — a high-impact rate decision that could wake up the franc.

- Australian jobs Thursday — high-impact data for AUD.

- Gold's squeeze — 4366 vs 4384, breakout pending.

- ETH's $2,672 weekly close — the level the street keeps circling.

- EUR/GBP weakness — our bearish reads need confirmation, not assumption.

That's the week, friend. Mixed tape, busy calendar, and crypto holding the fort all weekend. Keep your notes tidy and your risk tidier — and remember, this is educational context, not financial advice. See you Monday. ☕