Gold's Three-Week Losing Streak Just Snapped — and the Charts Still Won't Cheer

The Week That Was

Pour the coffee. This was one of those weeks where the headlines shouted louder than the price action, and the calmest thing on the screen was the market's own indecision.

The big story was gold. After three straight losing weeks, the yellow metal finally caught a bid into the close — but the tone stayed cautious. Kitco's latest weekly survey found analysts "still undecided on the short-term trend for gold prices," even as Wall Street "holds out hope for gold despite fall to $4,445/oz" and Main Street pared back its bullish majority with payrolls now in focus. FOREX.com summed it up neatly: gold is "caught between conflicting forces," starting the new week on the back foot after ending that losing streak with gains over the final two sessions.

Elsewhere, rates were the quiet puppeteer. One headline asked the question everyone's been chewing on: why the upcoming jobs report could send 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields surging. And in crypto, the rulebook kept getting rewritten — the Fed proposed stablecoin rules under the GENIUS Act, the SEC issued fresh guidance on staking tokens, buybacks and the Howey Test, and Commissioner Hester Peirce announced she'll step down on October 2.

What The Charts Are Saying

Here's our own read, straight from the barometer — no spin.

Gold is our clear bearish tilt (27/100). D1 and H4 are both pointing down, with only H1 trying to push back up. H4 RSI sits at 48.6 and H1 at 45.1 — no man's land. Price is wedged between support at 4333.73 (0.6 ATR below) and resistance at 4359.91 (1.0 ATR above), so the chart is evenly balanced but the higher-timeframe lean is down. That's the honest picture, even after the late-week bounce.

EUR/USD is neutral (52/100). D1 mixed, but H4 and H1 are both up. H4 RSI 39.4 is soft, H1 RSI 47.7 is middling. Price sits 1.0 ATR above the 1.14623 floor with a huge 11.9 ATR of room up to 1.15458 — low in the range, structure intact.

GBP/USD is also neutral (48/100) — mixed across all three timeframes, H4 RSI 40.9, no tested ceiling above and the floor far below. Price is stretched; the 30-minute move is active at 0.62 ATR.

USD/JPY leans bullish (57/100). D1 mixed, H4 down, H1 up, but H4 RSI at 66.2 and H1 at 60.3 are firm. Support 157.28 (1.5 ATR), resistance 157.82 (2.5 ATR) — evenly balanced, structure mixed.

Oil is neutral (49/100) — D1 up, H4 and H1 mixed, H4 RSI a soft 35.1. Support 91.61, resistance 92.57 close overhead.

Crypto Corner

Crypto never sleeps, and this weekend it's the only game in town. Bitcoin carries a clear bull tilt (68/100) — firm RSI with uptrends aligned across H1, H4 and D1. Ethereum is a moderate bull lean (62/100), same story: uptrend stack on all three timeframes with firm RSI.

The fundamental backdrop is busy. The Fed requested comment on two stablecoin proposals under the GENIUS Act, and one CryptoRank piece warned the proposed rule "could trigger a 48-hour liquidation run." The SEC issued FAQs clarifying crypto asset classification, staking receipts and buybacks. Binance's $100M Circle deal is boosting USDC in its race with Tether, analysts told CoinDesk. And the EU banking watchdog wants crypto lending and DeFi brought under MiCA. Rules tightening, structure holding — a fascinating tug of war to watch.

What The Street Is Watching

All eyes are on the US consumer and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. Kitco notes payrolls are "now in focus," and CNBC flagged that dollar and bond markets are "on edge" — with the whole complex sensitive to any shift in rate expectations. On the equity side, FOREX.com's weekly outlook highlights earnings from Nike (trading at a 12-year low), Micron keeping the AI trade in focus, and Carnival. BlackRock's weekly commentary is worth a read for the macro framing.

The Week Ahead

A genuinely loaded calendar. Monday brings ECB President Lagarde speaking (13:30 UTC). Tuesday is the RBA's turn — Cash Rate, Rate Statement and Press Conference all land at 04:30 UTC, with Lagarde again at 11:00, plus CAD GDP, US CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS. Wednesday is the heavyweight: Australian CPI (m/m, y/y and Trimmed Mean) at 01:30 UTC, German Prelim CPI, US ADP, and then Core PCE at 12:30 UTC — the one that can move everything.

What To Watch

- Core PCE (Wed) — the Fed's preferred inflation read; watch how yields and gold react together.

- Australian CPI + RBA (Tue/Wed) — a double dose for AUD traders.

- Gold's 4333–4360 range — a clean break either way tells a story.

- Stablecoin rulemaking — comment periods and SEC guidance keep crypto headlines hot all weekend.

That's the week. You showed up, you read, you're learning the rhythm of these markets — that's the whole game. Keep your risk small, your curiosity big, and enjoy the rest of your coffee. ☕

This is educational context, not financial advice.