Venor MarketsMarket PulseHomeVenor MarketsMarket PulseHomeFX, gold and oil are closed — crypto trades on. Session preps resume Sunday 21:00 UTC. Updated 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC.
Grab your coffee — it's been a week of two halves, and the mood music was set by the bond market. As one headline put it, "as Treasury yields touch generational highs, investors brace for the market fallout." When yields stretch this far, the dollar tends to puff out its chest, and that's broadly what we saw: the greenback leaning on both euro and sterling, while gold — usually the haven of choice — found itself on the back foot instead.
The macro chatter had a distinctly retro flavour. One headline warned of "falling wages, soaring energy prices and inflation: it's beginning to look a lot like the 1970s" — a reminder that this cycle has an old-school feel, with inflation and energy doing the talking. On the policy front, the UAE and Syria central banks signed an MoU to deepen financial cooperation, a small but telling sign of how financial diplomacy keeps ticking along in the background.
Crypto had its own busy week on the regulation desk (more below), and stablecoins were squarely in the crosshairs of European policymakers.
Here's our own read, straight from the barometer — and it's a mixed bag, so let's be honest about it.
EUR/USD is our clearest bearish read this week (29/100, "bearish clear"): D1 is down with H4 and H1 mixed. H4 RSI sits at 33.4 and H1 at 45.8. Price is stretched — there's no meaningful level above where it turned before, and the nearest support below is far away. That's a market that has travelled.
GBP/USD is bearish-leaning (39/100): D1 down, H4/H1 mixed, H4 RSI at 50.0 and H1 at 55.9. Cable is sitting closer to support at 1.32258 (0.6 ATR) than resistance at 1.32532 (1.0 ATR), so it's coiled near the lower rail.
USD/JPY leans bullish (68/100) — D1 up, H4/H1 mixed. It's parked right at resistance 157.83300 (just 0.1 ATR away) with support at 157.56933 a full ATR below. Sitting on the ceiling, in other words.
Gold is bearish-clear too (25/100): D1 down, H1 down, H4 mixed. H4 RSI 39.5, H1 40.4. It's closer to resistance 4143.10 (0.2 ATR) than support 4116.26 (1.0 ATR) — a soft week for the metal.
Oil is genuinely neutral (57/100): D1 down but H4 up, H1 mixed. Closer to resistance 94.58 than support 91.19.
Crypto never sleeps, and this weekend it's the only game in town. Bitcoin reads neutral (56/100) — D1 down, H1 up, H4 mixed — but note it's sitting just 0.1 ATR under resistance 85217.8 with a huge 5.4 ATR cushion to support at 84461.4. Translation: near the top of its recent range, and the H1 RSI at 69.0 says it's running warm.
Ethereum is our standout — bullish-clear (74/100), with D1 and H1 both up and H1 RSI at 62.4. It's closer to support 2693.4 (0.4 ATR) than resistance 2705.2 (1.7 ATR), and near-term structure is intact.
The regulatory tape was lively: community bankers sued the OCC over crypto firms' national trust charters (ICBA, per PYMNTS and BitKE); the EU may block crypto firms from holding non-compliant stablecoins, and Circle pushed back, urging the EU to swap its 30% stablecoin reserve rule for a liquidity test (The Cryptonomist, Pluang). South Korea wants tokenized stocks, bonds and funds under the same rules as the real thing, while India's parliamentary panel may recommend tighter crypto scrutiny. And Abracadabra proposed shutting down its MIM stablecoin, with holders set to recover around 4 cents a token.
Yields are the through-line — "generational highs" is the phrase of the week, and everyone's asking what the fallout looks like. Add the 1970s-style inflation-and-energy narrative, and you've got a market obsessed with rates and prices. On crypto, the street's focus is regulation: the OCC charter lawsuit, the EU stablecoin rules, and Circle's lobbying push are the stories shaping sentiment.
A busy calendar. Monday brings USD ISM Services PMI, then Tuesday has BOJ Gov Ueda speaking (high impact) plus CAD Ivey PMI. Wednesday's FOMC Meeting Minutes are the headline event. Thursday gives us US Unemployment Claims, and Friday closes with a CAD double — Employment Change and Unemployment Rate — plus Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.
- FOMC Minutes (Wed) — the week's main event for rate expectations.
- Ueda (Tue) — any shift in tone could move the yen, which is already pinned at resistance.
- CAD jobs (Fri) — a high-impact pair of releases for the loonie.
- Gold and the dollar — with gold bearish-clear and the dollar firm, watch whether that stretch in EUR/USD resolves.
- Crypto regulation — the OCC lawsuit and EU stablecoin rules are live threads.
Have a restful weekend, keep your risk small and your curiosity big — the charts will still be there on Monday. This is educational context, not financial advice.