On the six-month anniversary of the Iran war, divisions appear on Wall Street over the trajectory for oil prices

Six months after the outbreak of the Iran war, a clear divide has emerged among Wall Street strategists regarding the future path of crude prices. On one side, the market has observed a notable increase in oil supply flowing out of the Gulf region, which has helped ease immediate concerns about scarcity and has supported a more bearish outlook. This tangible rise in barrels suggests that the immediate shock of the conflict has been partially absorbed by existing infrastructure and strategic reserves.

However, strategists at RBC Capital Markets are cautioning against complacency. They argue that while current supply data appears reassuring, a significant number of obstacles remain on the horizon. These potential hurdles could range from shipping disruptions in key chokepoints to geopolitical escalations that threaten broader production stability. For investors, this divergence highlights the difficulty of pricing in both present supply fundamentals and future risk premiums. The key to watch is whether the observed Gulf supply can be sustained, or if the longer-term logistical and political threats materialize, which would likely force a reassessment of current price expectations.