Global oil prices surge above $94 a barrel and settle at a 6-week high after the U.S. strikes Iran in Hormuz, and Trump threatens more action if Tehran retaliates

Oil futures settled above $94 a barrel on Tuesday, reaching their highest level in nearly six weeks, after the U.S. military confirmed it had struck Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes were a direct response to overnight attacks on vessels passing through the waterway, and President Trump warned of further military action should Tehran retaliate.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, with a substantial portion of global seaborne crude passing through its narrow waters. Active military engagement in this area inherently raises the risk premium embedded in oil prices, as markets must now account for a higher probability of supply disruptions to tanker traffic. The shift from diplomatic tension to confirmed military confrontation marks a notable escalation in the region's risk profile.

Market participants will now focus on two key variables: whether Tehran responds militarily, and whether actual crude flow through the strait is affected. If shipping is disrupted or insurance premiums for tankers rise significantly, physical supply could tighten. Absent that, the price move may reflect a geopolitical risk premium that can quickly unwind as headlines evolve.