August jobs report could show a summer hiring slump. Haitian refugees are a wild card.

Wall Street’s August nonfarm payrolls forecast points to only a modest uptick in hiring, fueling speculation that the U.S. labor market is enduring a third consecutive summer slowdown. Yet market participants should be cautious about reading too much into the headline number. The data will likely carry mixed signals beneath the surface, and the report’s composition may tell a more nuanced story.

One unusual variable is the recent influx of Haitian refugees granted temporary protected status. While a relatively small segment of the workforce, their arrival adds a unique layer of uncertainty to survey-based employment estimates. Depending on when these individuals secure work authorization and begin appearing in payroll records, they could slightly skew regional or sectoral data, making the summer dip appear shallower or deeper than the underlying trend suggests.

For investors, the relevance lies in what the report signals to the Federal Reserve. Wage growth, labor-force participation, and revisions to prior months will likely matter more than the single monthly tally. A clear deterioration would strengthen the case for rate cuts, while a resilient core could keep policymakers patient. The data, not the headline, will set the tone.