August jobs report could show a summer slump in hiring. Haitian refugees are a wild card.

The August employment report is expected to show another month of subdued hiring, extending a pattern that has now emerged for the third consecutive summer. Forecasters look for only a small increase in payrolls, a figure that would typically raise concerns about a cooling labor market. Yet the data may not be as gloomy as the headline suggests. The Bureau of Labor Statistics often revises prior months' figures, and other indicators such as initial jobless claims have not signaled a sharp deterioration.

A wild card in this report is the arrival of Haitian refugees and other migrants in recent months. Their participation in the labor force could affect both the payroll count and the unemployment rate, though measuring this impact is imprecise. Economists will watch whether the data captures a surge in new workers, which could either mask underlying weakness or show that the economy is absorbing additional labor supply. The key for markets is not just the headline number, but how the details—including any revisions and the composition of job gains—shape the Federal Reserve's view of the labor market's trajectory.