ECB to raise rates a second time in September, but then done, say economists: Reuters poll - Reuters

Economists polled by Reuters expect the European Central Bank to deliver a second consecutive rate increase at its September meeting, according to the latest survey. This move would follow the bank's July hike and reflects ongoing efforts to bring inflation back toward target. However, the same consensus suggests that policymakers may then pause, judging that the current level of restriction is sufficient for the time being.

The significance lies in the expected endpoint of the tightening cycle rather than the September action itself. Markets have been wrestling with how far the ECB will go, and a clear signal that rates are near their peak can help stabilize bond yields and reduce uncertainty. For investors, the focus shifts to the bank's forward guidance and any language about data dependence.

What to watch now: upcoming inflation prints, wage growth figures, and the ECB’s own economic projections. These will determine whether the "done" scenario holds or if further adjustments become necessary. The poll highlights a delicate balancing act between curbing price pressures and avoiding an unnecessary drag on economic activity.