The ECB is virtually certain to raise rates. Wall Street is bracing for what comes next.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates at today's meeting, a move that would mark another step in its ongoing effort to bring inflation back toward target. Market pricing reflects near-unanimity on the decision itself, so the immediate policy action is unlikely to surprise investors.

The more consequential question lies beyond today. Bond markets are divided over where the ECB's terminal rate — the peak level of this tightening cycle — will ultimately settle. That disagreement reflects genuine uncertainty about how far policymakers will need to go, and how long rates will stay elevated.

Much of that uncertainty hinges on energy prices. Developments in the Middle East could affect oil and gas markets, feeding through to headline inflation and complicating the ECB's calculus. For investors, the takeaway is that the path ahead matters more than the decision itself: watch the ECB's forward guidance, the tone of its inflation assessment, and energy price movements in the coming weeks.