10-year Treasury yield tops 5% for the first time since 2007 as bond-market selloff deepens

The 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached 5% on Monday, a level last seen in 2007. Yields rise as bond prices fall, so the move reflects a deepening selloff in the $25 trillion U.S. government bond market rather than a single data release.

Several forces appear to be feeding the move. Oil prices have been climbing, which can lift near-term inflation expectations. At the same time, unease around artificial intelligence has added to broader risk-off sentiment, and investors have been rotating toward other perceived havens.

Why does the 10-year matter? It anchors borrowing costs across mortgages, corporate credit and consumer loans, and it is a key input for equity valuations. A sustained move above 5% can tighten financial conditions without the Federal Reserve acting.

What to watch: whether yields hold above the threshold or retreat, upcoming inflation and labor data, oil's path, and demand at Treasury auctions. Also watch the gap between short- and long-dated yields, which carries its own signals about growth expectations.