'We simply don't know' - JP Morgan struggling to forecast oil prices due to Trump's war with Iran - BBC

JP Morgan has acknowledged difficulty in forecasting oil prices amid heightened geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran, according to the BBC. The bank's assessment, captured in the phrase "we simply don't know," underscores how unpredictable geopolitical conflict can complicate even sophisticated commodity modeling.

Oil markets are particularly sensitive to Middle East developments because the region accounts for a substantial share of global crude production and exports. When tensions escalate, traders typically weigh the risk of supply disruptions against factors such as OPEC+ policy, global demand and inventory levels. That uncertainty can feed directly into price volatility.

For observers, the key takeaway is that forecast uncertainty itself is informative. When a major institution declines to offer a firm outlook, it signals that geopolitical outcomes — not fundamentals alone — may drive near-term price action. What to watch: further developments in US-Iran tensions, any impact on shipping routes or production, and whether other forecasters revise their own assumptions in response.