There’s a new Wall Street TACO index — and this one is saying it’s time for Trump to strike a deal

JPMorgan has introduced a "TACO" barometer — an acronym for "Trump Always Chickens Out" — as a way to gauge the behavior of a president whose policy signals have repeatedly moved markets. The index, according to the source, is designed to anticipate when the Trump administration may ultimately strike a deal rather than follow through on its toughest threats.

For investors, the relevance lies in how quickly sentiment can shift when policy rhetoric is walked back. Markets have shown sensitivity to tariff threats, trade negotiations and other geopolitical posturing, with risk assets often rallying when confrontation gives way to compromise. An index like this is less a crystal ball than a framework for thinking about that pattern.

What to watch: whether the barometer's signals align with actual policy outcomes over time. Any tool built on behavioral assumptions carries the risk of oversimplifying a complex decision-making process, so it is best treated as one input among many rather than a standalone guide.