Here’s how much stocks could fall if the Democrats sweep Congress, according to BofA

Bank of America's chief equity strategist, Michael Hartnett, has flagged the rising probability of a Democratic sweep in the midterm elections as a "meaningful" threat to risk appetite. In other words, the bank sees a political outcome — one party winning both chambers of Congress — as a factor that could weigh on investors' willingness to hold stocks.

Why would a sweep matter for markets? Control of Congress shapes the policy agenda: tax, spending, and regulatory decisions all flow from who holds the gavel. When one party gains unified control, the range of plausible policy outcomes narrows in one direction, and markets tend to reprice the assets most sensitive to those changes. BofA's framing is probabilistic, not a forecast — it attaches a downside scenario to a shift in election odds.

What to watch: polling and prediction-market shifts in the run-up to the vote, and whether investors begin pricing policy risk into sectors most exposed to legislative change. The takeaway is that election probabilities can move markets before any vote is cast.