‘Superintelligence’ may never arrive, Deutsche Bank says. What that could mean for the U.S. economy.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid has pushed back on the idea that artificial intelligence will inevitably lead to “superintelligence,” suggesting instead that the more probable path is gradual adoption with measurable productivity gains. In his view, those gains need not come at the expense of employment; they could instead support the creation of new roles, echoing past technology cycles in which automation reshaped work rather than eliminating it outright.

For the U.S. economy, the distinction matters. If AI’s contribution arrives incrementally, its effect on growth, wages, and inflation would likely unfold over years rather than in a single disruptive shock. That framing sits against more dramatic forecasts that assume a sudden leap in machine capability, which would imply a very different set of outcomes for labor demand and corporate investment.

What to watch is whether productivity data begin to reflect AI-driven efficiency, and how hiring patterns evolve across sectors adopting the technology. Those signals, rather than speculation about superintelligence, are likely to shape how markets and policymakers assess AI’s real economic footprint.