Four reasons to start worrying about inflation — including the end of tariff refunds

Dennis DeBusschere of 22V Research has flagged four reasons to start worrying about inflation, one of which centers on the fading benefit of tariff refunds. According to his analysis, companies that had previously used tariff refunds to cushion cost pressures will increasingly pass those higher costs on to consumers, removing a buffer that had helped keep prices in check.

The mechanism matters for how inflation is measured and felt. Tariff refunds functioned as a temporary offset to input costs; as that offset expires, firms face a choice between absorbing higher expenses or recovering them through pricing. DeBusschere's point is that the pass-through to consumers is likely to grow, which could keep upward pressure on prices beyond what headline figures alone might suggest.

For markets, the takeaway is that inflation risk may be broadening rather than fading. Investors often watch whether cost pressures are transitory or embedded in corporate pricing behavior. The pace at which tariff-related costs reach consumers is one signal worth tracking, alongside the other factors DeBusschere cites, as it informs expectations for pricing trends and the broader inflation outlook.